More or Less: Behind the Stats 3i6t6x

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity – currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people. One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls. In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country – Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange. The collected data – that covers up to the present day – shows a fertility rate that’s falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out. The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility. To explain what’s going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division. Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

In the early 2020s, a conspiracy theory started circulating online known as the “dead internet theory”. This suggested that, instead of a vibrant digital super-community where people freely share things like cat videos and conspiracy theories, the internet was instead basically dead - an AI dystopia controlled by the deep state, where almost everything you see and interact with is generated by computers. The theory that the internet is 100% dead can be easily disproven, but the theory does hint at something real. The internet certainly is full of “bots”, autonomous bits of software that are definitely not alive. In this episode, we investigate one specific claim about the number of these bots on the internet - the idea that more than half of internet traffic is bots. Where does this claim come from, and is it true? Presenter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

Warren Buffett has announced he is stepping down as CEO of his company, Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and is widely held up as the greatest investor who ever lived. He’s also been remarkably critical of other masters of the financial universe. Tim Harford talks to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the book Trillions, about Buffett’s money making method, and how he used a massive bet to make a point about hedge funds. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

An interruption to your regular podcast feed: the first episode of a new BBC Radio 4 series investigating the steep rise in autism diagnoses. The Autism Curve looks into the data that has prompted arguments - and conspiracy theories - about what’s behind the rapid rise. It goes on to explore changes in what autism is, who gets to define it, and whose experience counts. In this first episode, Ginny Russell discusses her 20-year study that showed an astonishing eightfold rise in new autism diagnoses in the UK on an exponential curve. And Professor Joshua Stott explains how a surprising discovery at a dementia clinic led him to calculate that that enormous rise in diagnoses may still undercount the country’s autistic population by as much as 1.2 million. Listen to the rest of The Autism Curve here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002bszl Archive: BBC; CSPAN; Fox News; CNN. Presenter: Michael Blastland Series Producer: Simon Maybin Editor: Clare Fordham Sound mix: Neil Churchill Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

On the 29th April US President Donald Trump took to the stage in Michigan to celebrate his first 100 days in office. This is a milestone in American politics, but is everything he claims the istration has achieved true? The BBC’s US National Digital Reporter Mike Wendling s us to fact-check President Trump’s claims on immigration, the stock market, fentanyl and….eggs. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Jack Morris Editor: Richard Vadon

Netflix’s psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class. The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ‘manosphere’. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ‘alpha’ male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims, including statistics. One such statistic was quoted in Adolescence and used to explain Jamie’s hatred towards women - that 80% of women are only attracted to 20% of men. Where does this claim come from and is it true? We look into the alleged maths behind the misogyny. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Here are More or Less we’ll all about the facts. Every day we use a toolkit of known proofs to try and answer our listeners’ questions. But who do we have to thank for this toolkit and how did they set about proving the unknown? Luckily for us mathematician Adam Kucharski has just written a book about this very topic called ‘Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty’. us to hear more about some of the proof pioneers included in his book, from estimating the number of German tanks during WW2 to an unsung heroine of statistics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner

What is the cash value of a human life? That’s the question at the heart of The Price of Life, a book by journalist Jenny Kleeman. It turns out that there’s not just one price, there are many - depending on exactly how that life is being created, traded or destroyed. Tim Harford talks to Jenny about what she discovered. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat? When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This episode was originally broadcast on the 9th April. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries. The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US. However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up. Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going on. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them? In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence. Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches. But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with”. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day” a Donald Trump calls it. But is President Trump right about the trading relationship between the two countries? What does he mean when he claims that “the US subsidises Canada $200 billion a year”? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Studio manager: Andrew Mills

Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up? A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on. The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why. And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look at the history of a very flexible 40 days. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and the world around us. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth. Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet. The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero. Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon

More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend? Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does? One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down. It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll. But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances in life. Five years on, Tim Harford delves into the data to try to work out what we can say with confidence about the effect of the lockdown on the children and young adults who lived through it. On questions of education levels, job prospects and mental health, what story does the best evidence show us? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations. If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa. Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority. However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to accurately put a number on intelligence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a media concoction? Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk? Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown