Hold Your Fire 6f5t33

Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast. In this episode, Alan Boswell is ed by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking. For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military campaign that appears aimed at fragmenting Gaza territorially while linking military operations to the management of humanitarian aid. They examine how the war is affecting Israel’s domestic politics and whether public sentiment is shifting. They also discuss how the war has affected Israel’s international standing, with European leaders voicing growing criticism of Israel’s conduct. Richard then turns to Rob to take a closer look at Israel’s aid distribution plan and its reported aim to provide only minimal levels of food after months of blockade, despite most Palestinians in Gaza already facing severe hunger. For more, check out our recent statement “Saving Gaza from Starvation” our Analyst’s Notebook entry “The Vanishing Line between Starvation and Famine in Gaza” and our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Samina Ahmed, and Pierre Prakash about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after days of clashes sparked by militant attacks in Kashmir and how to prevent the next crisis from spiralling out of control. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi, South Asia Project Director Samina Ahmed, and Asia Program Director Pierre Prakash to discuss the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which followed days of intense clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Richard first speaks with Praveen about the mood in India following the ceasefire and its investigation into the late-April attack in India-istered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists – an assault India blames on Pakistan-sponsored militants and which triggered last week’s brief war. With Samina, they unpack the view from Pakistan, the toll the fighting took across the country, and safeguards the two sides can put in place to prevent future crises from escalating. Finally, Richard talks with Pierre about what diplomacy over Kashmir and tensions between India and Pakistan might entail and why South Asia deserves greater outside attention. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  For more, check out our India-Pakistan (Kashmir) page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Director, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit to the Gulf. They unpack Washington’s priorities for the trip, the role regional peace and security might play in Trump’s discussions with Gulf Arab leaders, and what Riyadh and other capitals hope to get from his visit. They assess the state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the incentives on both sides to reach a deal, and obstacles to diplomacy. They also examine other issues that might feature in Trump’s discussions in the Gulf, including Israel’s new war plans and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, sanctions relief for Syria and the war in Sudan. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  For more, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue hip in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the earthquake that struck central Myanmar last Friday. They examine the devastation in Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, and other hard-hit areas, how U.S. aid cuts have hampered the emergency response and the extent to which China and others have stepped in. They explore how Myanmar’s civil war complicates relief efforts, with the army largely absent from rescue operations, and whether the disaster might impact military leader Min Aung Hlaing’s grip on power. They also unpack the evolving policies of Myanmar’s big neighbours, China and India, and what might break a stalemate in an increasingly intractable and neglected crisis. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  For more, check out our recent Q&A “ Vital for Myanmar’s Quake Victims, Despite Military Obstacles”, our briefing “Disquiet on the Western Front: A Divided Resistance in Myanmar’s Chin State” and our Myanmar country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country. In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group experts Max Rodenbeck, Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi and Michael Wahid Hanna to discuss the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire, the likely effect on Palestinians in Gaza and the goals of both Israel’s renewed military campaign and the U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Richard first talks to Max, Mairav and Amjad about Israel’s return to war, including its retreat from a three-phase ceasefire deal it struck with Hamas in January. They examine Israeli views of the war, including the growing public anger at the government’s handling of the hostage crisis and the resumption of the war. They also explore Hamas’s strength in Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave and the possible futures of governance in the strip. Richard then speaks to Michael, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, about the Trump istration’s emerging Middle East policy, as the U.S. backs Israel's campaign in Gaza, strikes the Houthis in Yemen and steps up pressure on Iran, even as the president signals he wants to enter nuclear talks with Tehran. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is ed by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his istration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump istration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump istration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East.    For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is ed by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year conflict with the PKK (a group designated as terrorist by Ankara and several Western capitals). They unpack how the PKK’s leadership in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains has reacted to Öcalan’s call and how the conflict has influenced Ankara’s relations with Baghdad. They discuss implications for north-eastern Syria, where the PKK-linked Syrian Democratic Forces have clashed with Türkiye-backed groups, whether the efforts by Syria’s new leadership to integrate the SDF into a new state structure can address Ankara’s security concerns and Israel’s potential for the SDF. They also assess how the public in Türkiye has reacted to the latest initiative to end the conflict and where the process might be headed next. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.   For more, check out our visual explainer “Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer”, our latest War & Peace podcast “After Assad – Implications for Türkiye in Syria and Beyond” and our Türkiye country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is ed by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region. Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Sudan country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is ed by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or NATO hip and Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at the Munich Security Conference. They discuss the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh intended to lay groundwork for further diplomacy to end the Ukraine war and what role Kyiv and Europe might play in future rounds. They assess whether European capitals can step up to shape the future of the continent's security. They also discuss dynamics within President Trump's team, what to make of his statements about the U.S.’s own territorial expansion and his attacks on Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify. For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump istration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They look at Iran’s diminished regional influence, given Israel’s hammering of Iran-backed militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, and whether its increased vulnerability changes its nuclear calculations. They talk about what maximum pressure might entail this time around and whether European capitals might reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, which they can still do before October as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Finally, they assess what a diplomatic initiative to revive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might look like and how regional powers like Saudi Arabia can help. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent EU Watchlist commentary “Test Diplomacy with a Weakened Iran” and our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is ed by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher to talk about Donald Trump’s shock proposal for Gaza and its implications for the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Richard first speaks with Mairav, Amjad and Rob about Trump’s plan, which would include relocating Palestinians out of Gaza and placing the territory under U.S. control and how it has been received among Palestinians, Israelis and worldwide. They assess progress made under the first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, conditions in the strip and prospects of getting to a second phase which includes an Israeli troop withdrawal. They discuss the uptick of violence in the West Bank and the risk of Israel fully annexing the territory. Richard then talks with Michael about how Trump’s remarks on Gaza should be interpreted, as top officials appear to walk some of them back even as Trump doubles down.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.  For more, be sure to read our latest EU Watch List Commentary “Toward a Stronger European Stand on Israel-Palestine”, our statement “Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce”, and our Israel/Palestine country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is ed by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes Director Richard Moncrieff to discuss the fall of Goma, the capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu province, to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group and its implications for Kinshasa and the broader region. They unpack the rapid collapse of Congolese forces in Goma, the role of Rwandan troops in the offensive, and how the city’s residents view the M23. They look at the Rwandan army’s presence in the Kivus, Kigali’s strategic interests there and its shift from denying involvement to justifying it. They talk about DRC President Félix Tshisekedi’s political standing in Kinshasa in the wake of Goma’s fall and how he might respond. Finally, they assess the role of other African leaders and prospects for diplomacy. They also look at Rwanda’s status as a regional power player and why Western capitals have been reluctant to put more pressure on Kigali to stop meddling.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.  For more, be sure to check out our latest statement “Fall of DRC’s Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War”, our EU Watch List Commentary “Turbulence in the DRC Raises Hard Questions for the EU”, and our Great Lakes regional page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa and Nanar Hawach to discuss what’s ahead for Syria after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They unpack the offensive led by Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels, the rapid disintegration of regime forces and Syrians’ hopes after more than a decade of war. They look at the challenges Syria’s new authorities are facing under HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, including protecting public order, integrating the country’s fragmented rebel factions, army remnants and militias into a unified command, and steering a political transition. They look at security in central and western Syria, how minorities view Syria’s new rulers, and north-eastern Syria, where Turkish-backed groups have been battling the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They discuss the U.S.’s role in Syria, the risk of a resurgent Islamic State and al-Sharaa’s efforts to get sanctions lifted and restore Syria’s relations with regional and Western capitals.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.  For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest commentary “Key Decisions Loom as Syria Enters a New Era” and our Syria country page.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump istration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden istration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump istration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for influencing Washington. They look at what Trump’s presidency could mean for hotspots in Africa, including Somalia, Sudan, the DR Congo and the Sahel, as well as the future of UN peacekeeping missions on the continent. Finally, they discuss the risk that some African states may fragment, asking whether stronger, more unified leadership might help the continent navigate the volatile world order.  For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Kyung-wha Kang, former South Korean Foreign Minister, CEO of Asia Society and Crisis Group trustee, to discuss North Korea and Russia’s strategic partnership, potential change Donald Trump might bring to U.S.-South Korea relations and what they mean for the Korean peninsula. They talk about North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kursk region to assist Moscow in its war against Ukraine, what Pyongyang and Moscow seek to gain from strengthening their ties and how Beijing views the relationship. They also look at how Washington’s alliance with Seoul might evolve under a second Trump presidency and what a potentially more confrontational U.S.-China policy means for the prospects for nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang and for North East Asia’s security more broadly.  For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our report The Next U.S. istration and China Policy, our Q&A Plugging a New Gap in Monitoring Sanctions on North Korea, and our North East Asia regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is ed by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does that means subjugating Kyiv to Russian influence? What does a more transactional Washington portend for NATO and European security? Richard and Michael then look at how a Trump presidency might approach Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, its confrontation with Iran and Middle East politics more broadly. Renata lays out what to make of Trump’s stated plans for mass deportations and his next istration’s Latin America policy. Richard then speaks with Ali and Amanda about China policy under the next Trump istration, the prospect of tariffs on Chinese exports and flashpoints around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.  For more, check out our commentary Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine, our recent report The Next U.S. istration and China Policy, and our United States program page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is ed by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alongside Chad’s traditional ally . They also talk about neighbouring Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s increasing reliance on Russian mercenaries and Rwandan forces for protection and in battling rebels on the country’s peripheries. They look at Cameroonian President Paul Biya’s recent absence from public view, questions surrounding the leadership succession and enduring separatist violence in Cameroon’s Anglophone areas. Lastly, they assess the gloomy prospects for more open politics in Central Africa, where leaders seem determined to stay in power at any cost, and the implications for the region’s stability.  Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.  For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A Arrest of Separatist Leader Puts Spotlight on Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict and our Central Africa regional page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.